Is the Maine Real Estate Market Softening?

August 11, 2021

There has been a lot of buzz lately about whether the national single family market is shifting away from its Summer 2021 seller market insanity.  There have been articles about buyers getting cold feet, inventory increasing - even talk of an impending crash. 

What is going on in Maine?  The July numbers are out and long term indicators remain strong but there are some signs of a possible shift.

Home Prices Continue to Rise.

First, looking at the five year trend, median prices of single family homes in Cumberland County and in Maine have been trending up steadily (see interactive chart below). The three year and one year median price charts show a similar increase.

While the median single family home price for Maine and Cumberland County dropped between June and July of 2021, it was not out of line with normal seasonality.

There are Less New Homes Coming on the Market.

Further, New Listings for Single Family Homes continue to decrease - leading to reduced inventory of homes on the market - and thus creating pressure on home prices to rise due to low supply.  Inventory of single family homes in July 2021 in comparison to June held steady and are in line with normal seasonality.  Closings of Home Sales dropped but not out of norm with seasonal changes seen in past years. The number of Days on the Market for homes increased slightly but also not outside of normal season shifts. 

However, There are Markedly Less Showings per Listing Since April 2021.

Of interest however, Showings per Listing for Maine and Cumberland County both had a sharp drop by nearly half from an April high, with an average showing per listing dropping from 14.4 in Cumberland County down to 7.8 and showing counts in Maine overall dropping from 7.4 to 4.5 from April to July. (See Chart Below). This number is a data point for buyer interest - more showings = more buyer interest. A drop could be an early indicator that buyers are getting cold feet. The spike this year in showings is even more clear on the three year graph.

Also, a Comparison of List Prices to Actual Selling Prices Indicates a Possible Dip

Also, the Percentage of List Price (comparison of list price to selling price - see chart below) remains very high historically at 100% for Maine and 104.6% for Cumberland County, but there is a dip in the list price percentage from June to July 2021 - which is interestingly not in line with normal seasonality (normally prices are up or steady see 5 Year Chart). 

Does this drop in closing price compared to list and a drop in showings indicate a shift in the market back down to reality?

Email us and let us know if you are seeing a shift in the market in your area.

We will keep you up to date with the data. June numbers in a snapshot here and here.